The Giants figured out a way to slow down the Patriots offense in the first meeting, but they are just too good to expect it to happen the same way again. The Pats are tops in Drive Success Rate, our most important statistic to winning, converting a first down four times out of five. They are also at the top of the league in Yards per Drive, while the Giants defense ranks just 20th.

The Patriots have been great inside the red zone, scoring three quarters of their total possible points, while the Giants have struggled a bit, ranking 21st in the league. In what looks to be a high scoring affair, if the Patriots have to settle for field goals, they won’t survive like they did against the Ravens.
The running game for the Patriots has been very good at getting the yards they need, but not much more, as they rank 23rd in Yards per Carry. I don’t expect any of the Patriot running backs (or TEs) to have much of an impact running the ball. If they do, it’ll be a great sign for New England.

The Patriot Defense has played better the past two weeks than they did during the regular season, but by no means can they count on them to shut down the Giants offense. By my numbers, the Broncos game ranked in the 60th percentile of games this season, and it was their second best defensive game of the season. This isn’t a Colts of 2006-style turn around. It’s just a slight improvement on awful.

Where can the Patriots Defense make an impact? Turnovers, where they been consistently good all year, and the Giants have had issues holding onto the football. They had two in the first meeting, including a muffed punt that completely flipped field position and led to the first Patriots points of the day, and a Manning interception that led to a touchdown. The Giants have only turned it over once in the playoffs, however.
Manning had one of the best passing years in the league this season, ranking 4th in Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, behind only the Packers, Patriots, and Saints, who all have pretty good QBs. The New England secondary has been picked on all season, and will have to play incredibly well to slow down the Giants passing attack.

We should also expect some long drives by the Giants, as the Patriots rank dead last in several drive-related stats, while the Giants were a top 10 team offensively. I’d imagine one of their goals is to keep Tom Brady on the sidelines as much as possible, and you do that with long drives.

With Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, it seems strange that the Giants struggled so much running the football this season, but they rank last in Yards per Carry, and just 22nd in RB Success rate. Bradshaw did not play in the first meeting this year, and Jacobs had 72 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown in that win over the Patriots. The running game will most likely be used more as a change of pace rather than a focus, so it’ll be a nice bonus if they run well.

The previous four Patriot Super Bowls have all been decided by three points, so it makes a lot of sense why the spread for the game has been hovering around three for the entire two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. The Giants have been red-hot in the Playoffs, while the Patriots whipped an over-matched Broncos team and squeaked by against the Ravens. As the theme has been throughout the entire preview, Turnovers will tell the story. The team that wins the turnover battle will be crowned Super Bowl XLVI champions. I can’t see New England turning it over four times again, and they’ll almost certainly get better field position than the first time around, so I think that’ll be the difference from their Week 9 game.

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